Showing posts with label Dmitri Medvedev. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dmitri Medvedev. Show all posts

Monday, August 25, 2014

Hillary Clinton’s ‘Hard Choices’ Retrospective Part Four Chapter 11 Russia: Reset and Regression

Speaking of Vladimir Putin Hillary says "hard men represent hard choices" and goes on to provide her analysis of him and how who he is informs his particular choices.  She says he views geopolitics as a zero-sum game where if someone is winning someone else has to be losing.

Her recommended strategy for managing a relationship with the Russians: work with them on specific issues; rally other nations to work with us against negative behavior as needed.

She betrays a clear preference for the vision Yeltsin had for Russia and mentions this moment when he turned back the forces of an old soviet-era coup.



We know Yeltsin kept a photo of her in his office.  There was mutual admiration, clearly.  For the heck of it I also share these.   They always make me smile.




We will never see anything like that from Putin.

Calling Russia the fourth most dangerous place in the world to be a journalist, she refers to this meeting with civil leaders where she spoke of press freedom and human rights.

Hillary Clinton at a Reception for Civil Society Leaders in Moscow

 Hillary Rodham Clinton

She also gave this daring radio interview on this trip and spoke of human rights.

Hillary Clinton’s Interview with Moskvy Radio


It was during the 2008 primaries here in the U.S. that term limits forced Putin to relinquish the presidency to Dmitry Medvedev whom Hillary found surprisingly conciliatory.

The approach, therefore, that was THE reset, was three-pronged:
  1. cooperation on aligned interests,
  2. firmness where interests diverged,
  3. engagement with the people.
She attributes the use of the term reset to Joe Biden who used it first.  As she looks back at her first official meeting with Lavrov,  we get a glimpse of the value she places on the use of humor in diplomacy.  Even funnier, in the book she relates how Philippe Reines tried to get the button back to correct the label, prevailed upon the Russian ambassador to Switzerland who said he would have to ask the minister, and Philippe said that his minister was going to send him to Siberia if he didn't get it back.  Hillary said she was tempted.

Hillary Clinton’s Reset Meeting with Russian FM Lavrov


The next month the two new presidents would meet. It was a watershed moment - a very productive meeting.  Medvedev acknowledged that the U.S. was probably right about Iran nuclear intentions and the two decided that it was time to revisit the nuclear treaty our two countries share. START had expired, and nothing had been done to revise and renew it.  Hillary and Sergei Lavrov were about to be assigned what might have been their most important mission: a New START.  They, and their respective squadrons, would prove to be a close and impressive team.

A year later,  she and Secretary Gates introduced the New START Treaty.

Secretary Clinton’s Remarks On The New START Treaty


The presidential signing took place in Prague in April 2010.



Immediately afterwards Hillary went on the offensive to get the treaty ratified.  In the book, Hillary manages to reduce the battle for ratification to about a page.  In real life, it took a year for the teams to hammer out the treaty (not bad considering the massive assignment) and then it took all of this to get it ratified.

Her allies on The Hill were Vice President Joe Biden, Harry Reid, John Kerry, and Richard Lugar.  Her companion in the trenches was Robert Gates.

Secretary Clinton’s Remarks on the Announcement of the Release of the Nuclear Posture Review

Smart START – Hillary Clinton Unveils Non-Proliferation Rationale @ McConnell Center Speaker Series!


Yes, it was and is that McConnell Center (a very smart move). She also published an international op-ed.

Our Giant Step Towards a World Free from Nuclear Danger

Video: Secretary Clinton on the New START Treaty

Video & Text: Secretary Clinton’s Remarks on the New Start Treaty at the Senate Armed Services Committee

Secretary Clinton’s Remarks to Members of the U.S. Delegation to the New START Negotiations and Nuclear Posture Review Department Staff

Video & Text: Secretary Clinton’s Remarks on the New START Ratification


Always keep smiling, even when the struggle is hard!

Secretaries Clinton and Gates on Senate Foreign Relations Committee Approval of the New START Treaty

When possible, wear pink.  It weakens resistance.


The New START Treaty: It’s Time for the Senate to Vote


But, as Hillary remarks, after the 2010 mid-term elections it appeared that ratification was going to be a tough battle.  Many Tea Party candidates had been elected to Congress and some seats had been lost in the Senate.   There was pressure from the far right that threatened to get in the way.

This is just me, not Hillary, but her analysis of Putin and what drives him could also apply to some Tea Party folks who believe in a zero-sum game and think our glory days lie in a past century.  One way Putin is more advanced than they is that he is less insular.  He intends to organize with his Pacific neighbors.

I do not believe New START would have been on the agenda, however, if he and not Medvedev were president.

Video: Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Richard Lugar on The New START Treaty

Powerhouse Pow-Wow: How to Jumpstart New START


Finally, right before Christmas, as if a gift, ratification!  It was a present - from Hillary and Sergei Lavrov to the world.  Thank you both and your industrious teams!


Secretary Clinton’s Statement on Senate Ratification of New START

Hillary Clinton’s New START: A Happy Beginning

The instruments of ratification were exchanged in February 2011.  Hillary was so happy that they finally had gotten this done that she remarked that she was having trouble signing her own name - a problem we have not seen on the book promotion trail.

Video: Secretary Clinton’s Remarks After Exchange of Instruments of Ratification for the New START Treaty




If anyone tries to tell you she accomplished nothing or that the reset did not work,  show them this page.  She worked very hard to get this treaty and to get it ratified.  We are lucky.  This protects us all.
But as 2011 began with this extraordinary bi-national victory,  the tone shifted with the year drawing to a close.  As Hillary recounts, Russian parliamentary elections in December were marred by fraud reports,  and Putin announced his intention to run for the presidency again.

Hillary expressed concern about these reports, and when folks in Russia hit the streets to demonstrate their disapproval, Putin blamed her for the unrest.

At this OSCE conference Hillary quotes herself.

Secretary Clinton’s Remarks at the OSCE


The Russian people, like people everywhere, deserve the right to have their voices heard and their votes counted. And that means they deserve fair, free, transparent elections and leaders who are accountable to them.
Although she argued to Putin that it was unlikely that people woke up and went into the streets because they thought she wanted them to, she does not completely reject the idea that she might have inspired some courage to protest.

As Putin retrieved the presidency and rejected an invitation to the G-8  at Camp David, she warned President Obama that Putin's "regional integration" was code for rebuilding the empire of the past.
The reset, she tells us was what you think it was.  It delivered or disappointed according to your expectations.  A Rorschach test of sorts.  It was meant, she states, as a recognition, not as a reward.
To illustrate the complexities of the reset she provides the example of supply routes to Afghanistan.  As we saw in the Pakistan chapter, one of these was over land.  But we also leased former Soviet air bases in both Kyrgystan and Uzbekistan for air transport.

Given the world-view Hillary assigns to Putin, it is not hard to see why he might perceive our presence on former Soviet military bases as a threat.  That, indeed, is what he warned the Kyrgys and Uzbeks of - a permanent U.S. presence on these bases (that we were leasing).

A long, but necessary land route for supplies crosses Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan by rail. The complex came to be known as the Northern Distribution Network and was crucial to the Afghanistan surge.  Medvedev signed off on our use of Russian rails for this purpose in 2009 (for a price).  The movement of lethal cargo across former Soviet land provided an opportunity for Russia to exert some muscle.

When Hillary visited Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, and Uzbekistan in 2010, she was asked where they stood in the reset.

Hillary Rodham Clinton
QUESTION: Where does Kyrgyzstan come in in your reset with Russia?
SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, Russia and the United States, we think, have to work hard to overcome a legacy of mistrust, and try to chart a new course. So when the Obama Administration came in, President Obama and I said we’re going to try to reset relations with Russia. That doesn’t mean we will always agree, because we will not. But it does mean, where we can agree, we should. And we should try to make the world safer and more secure, fewer conflicts, fewer problems.
... But what’s important for us, for the United States, is that Kyrgyzstan be left alone to make its own decisions about what is best for Kyrgyzstan, and that no country interfere with or undermine the legitimate aspirations of the people of Kyrgyzstan to have a democracy that will fulfill the aspirations of you, and no one else. That is our hope.
QUESTION: And is there any rivalry going on between Russia and the U.S., I mean, in the region, particularly in Kyrgyzstan?

Secretary Clinton:... I think it’s important for you to have relations with many, but not be dependent on any. Try to balance off all the different relations you have, and get the best help you can from other countries that wish to participate with you.
The entire transcript is here.

Secretary Clinton’s Townterview in Kyrgyzstan


Strategy to counter Putin's neo-colonial agenda included helping Europe,  eastern Europe in particular, secure alternative sources of fuel and energy and reduce dependence on Gazprom since  Russia could shut down those supply lines at will.

With Cathy Ashton she initiated the U.S. - E.U. Energy Council.  Although, as she says, these efforts did not make headlines here at home, they forced Gazprom to compete and influenced Ukraine's desire for closer ties to Europe (and freedom from Gazprom) which, in turn, relaxed Putin's grip on the former Soviet state and emboldened Ukrainians to stand firm in their intent to join with Europe.

Joint Statement Following the U.S.- EU Energy Council Ministerial, Lisbon


As she brings this Russian chapter to a close she shares some personal insights and moments with Putin, including the invitation for Bill Clinton to tag polar bears with him.
Another involves her attendance at APEC in Vladivostok in September 2012.

Hillary Clinton at APEC in Vladivostok



She mentions that President Obama could not attend because of his campaign schedule here at home.  Both Putin and Lavrov resented  1) that President Obama was not there and 2) remarks she had made about Russia's support for Bashar Al-Assad and therefore resisted a meeting with her. Protocol dictated that the former APEC host (U.S.) be seated beside the current host at the ceremonial dinner.  As the president's representative, the U.S. CEO was Hillary and she was seated beside Putin at the dinner.  Not only did they socialize and talk issues and strategy, but Putin shared a story about his parents that no one had ever heard.

She does not mention, so I shall, that at this APEC Summit she signed a Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Russian Federation on Cooperation in the Antarctic and a Joint Statement on Strengthening U.S.-Russian Inter-Regional Cooperation with Sergei Lavrov.   So the reset continued to succeed.


Hillary Clinton At Signing Ceremony With Russian FM Lavrov


Prior to leaving the department she sent President Obama an analysis of relations with Putin's Russia and some recommendations that some thought extreme at the time.  More recent events have shown her assessment to be on target.

As was the case with some previous chapters, the final paragraphs seem directed to Putin and the Russian people more than to us.   It is excellent advice and they all should attend to it.
_____________________________________________________________

Hillary Clinton’s ‘Hard Choices’ Retrospective: Introduction

_____________________________________________________________
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She does not mention this, so I shall even though it is off-topic.  The APEC  summit in Vladivostok came at the end of this trip for which she cut short an already brief vacation.

Just Confirmed: Hillary Clinton to Visit Cook Islands, Indonesia, China, Timor-Leste, Brunei, and Russia

August 28, 2012 by still4hill
She had been away and working non-stop for eleven days.  There are no "weekends" for a traveling secretary of state.  It was eleven solid days packed with work.  She had  been in six countries. She was in Vladivostok through the September 9, flew home and was at the State Department for a 9:15 meeting on September 10.

SECRETARY HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: Public Schedule for September 10, 2012

Take note of the date.  She came home to more than a dozen embassies and consulates under siege and was at her office late the next evening as tragic events unfolded.

To those who question where she was and what she was doing, I can answer that she was working as she had been for two solid weeks with no break.  I would also ask them when the last time was that they worked through two weeks straight for the long hours that she worked without a day off.  To imply or assert that Hillary Clinton ever shirked any aspect of her duty as secretary of state, especially with our embassies and consulates in danger, is a reprehensible assault on a dedicated public servant - particularly when the agenda is purely political.

As I said, it is off-topic, parenthetical, and it is just me.
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Monday, May 7, 2012

As the World Turns: New Diplomatic Landscape Develops for Hillary Clinton

We loved Nicholas Sarkozy in the role of Prince Charming when our gorgeous Cinderella lost her slipper on the steps of the Elysee Palace once-upon-a-time.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, left, loses her shoe as she is greeted upon her arrival by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, right, on the steps of the Elysee palace, Paris, Friday, Jan. 29, 2010. Clinton flew to Paris on Friday for talks with French officials and to give a speech on European security in which she will underscore the Obama administration's commitment to the continent's security. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Last month she clearly charmed French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe on a visit to Paris.
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe (R) turns to speak to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during the family photo during the meeting of "The Friends of Syria" in Paris April 19, 2012. Major international powers meeting in Paris on Thursday called a U.N.-backed peace plan the "last hope" to resolve the Syrian crisis and said they would do all they could to help it succeed, according to draft conclusions obtained by Reuters. The agenda of the "Friends of Syria" meeting, which includes France, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, is to ensure the Arab League-U.N. plan succeeds. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier (FRANCE - Tags: POLITICS)
It is all history now as a new French government prepares to step to the fore under Socialist François Hollande.  We will watch with interest as our intrepid SOS greets the new leadership.  We expect to see smart power on steroids in the coming weeks.

Hollande defeats Sarkozy in French presidential election


Top story: Francois Hollande beat French President Nicolas Sarkozy with just over 51 percent of the vote in a runoff election on Sunday, becoming the first Socialist to win the presidency since Francois Mitterrand left office in 1995. Sarkozy, the first French president since 1981 to not win a second term, will officially transfer power to Hollande on May 15.
Read more >>>>
Meanwhile, on the Russian front. he-man superstar Vladimir Putin has reclaimed his former post as president.

Vladimir Putin Sworn In For Third Term As Russia's President

By LYNN BERRY 05/07/12 07:48 AM ET AP
MOSCOW -- Vladimir Putin took the oath of office in a brief but regal Kremlin ceremony on Monday, while on the streets outside thousands of helmeted riot police prevented hundreds of demonstrators from protesting his return to the presidency.
Putin, 59, has ruled Russia since 2000, first as president and then during the past four years as prime minister. The new, now six-year term will keep him in power until 2018, with the option of running for a fourth term.
Read more >>>>
Four years ago, when Dmitri Medvedev stepped into the presidency, there was speculation that he was a placeholder for Putin.  Those whispers   have never died down. We see her here with Putin at a meeting at his residence in Russia which had not been scheduled but which she requested.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, left, greets U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton during a meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo just outside Moscow, Friday, March 19, 2010. Clinton said Friday that American and Russian negotiators are "on the brink" of agreement on a nuclear arms reduction treaty. (AP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Alexei Nikolsky, Pool)
We can reasonably expect that aside from dealing anew with Putin, Mme. Secretary will continue her successful working relationship with Sergei Lavrov whom we do not expect to see replaced and with whom she successfully hammered out the New START Treaty.
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, right, and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov smile as they exchange documents after finalizing the New START treaty during the Conference on Security Policy in Munich, Germany, Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
So, at least as far as Russia is concerned, plus ça change, plus c'est la meme chose.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Secretary Clinton Phone Call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov

Secretary Clinton Phone Call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov

Philip J. Crowley
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Public Affairs
Washington, DC
June 20, 2010


Today, Secretary Clinton spoke by telephone with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. They discussed preparations for the upcoming June 24 summit between President Obama and President Medvedev. Secretary Clinton and Foreign Minister Lavrov reviewed developments in Kyrgyzstan and stressed their shared concern over the recent violence and continuing interethnic tensions. The ministers agreed that the issue of the upcoming referendum is the sovereign decision of Kyrgyzstan to make and agreed to encourage the authorities of Kyrgyzstan to conduct it according to international standards with the monitoring support of OSCE and others. The ministers also discussed coordination of U.S. and Russian humanitarian assistance and other support to Kyrgyzstan to help its authorities restore security, stability, and reconciliation among all citizens of Kyrgyzstan.