Quinnipiac Poll Keeps Hillary Clinton Strong Against GOP Hopefuls

A new Quinnipiac poll out today pits our girl against Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan. She takes all three handily. The poll pre-dates Jeb Bush recently testing the waters, and  we can anticipate his name coming up in a future poll. It is doubtful that his numbers would be better than Christie's who, so far, is her strongest opponent, but not quite strong enough.

Just a gentle reminder though that we need to keep ourselves tethered in the present rather than floating blissfully into the future. These numbers are based on supposition not fact. The facts are that Hillary has not said she will run, neither have any of the others, and it is only 2013.

The numbers are also based on current ages and that will change, as certainly as the sun rises.  There is that odd dip in the 35-54 age group.   Members of that group will age into 55+ over the next three years.  Hillary's strength, apparently is with the youth vote, and that is without her having lifted her pretty pinky to get their attention.   Whether she takes a loss in the 55+ group as that middle group ages remains to be seen.  I do not mean to imply that she is doing badly with 35-54, she simply is consistently a little weaker there. 

Here are the stats of interest from Quinnipiac.

March 7, 2013 - Clinton, Christie Lead The Pack In Early Look At 2016, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds

Hillary Clinton would defeat three potential Republican presidential candidates if the 2016 presidential election were held today, with New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie second in a field of three Democrats and three Republicans selected by Quinnipiac University for a national poll released today.

Vice President Joseph Biden and New York's Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo would not fare nearly as well, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

The Republicans tested also include Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State Clinton wins easily against any of the Republicans, topping Christie 45 - 37 percent; leading Rubio 50 - 34 percent and besting Ryan 50 - 38 percent.

"Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would start a 2016 presidential campaign with enormous advantages," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "She obviously is by far the best known and her more than 20 years in the public spotlight allows her to create a very favorable impression on the American people. But it is worth noting that she had very good poll numbers in 2006 looking toward the 2008 election, before she faced a relative unknown in Barack Obama."

Christie gets 43 percent to Vice President Biden's 40 percent and tops Cuomo 45 - 28 percent.

Biden tops Rubio 45 - 38 percent and gets 45 percent to Ryan's 42 percent.

Ryan tops Cuomo 42 - 37 percent while Cuomo and Rubio are tied 37 - 37 percent.

"Although some Republicans don't think New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie is conservative enough for their taste, he runs best of the three Republicans tested and would defeat two of the top Democrats," Brown said. "He obviously is doing better than the Democrats' rising star, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, despite other indications of anti-Republican sentiment."

The Democratic edge is seen in the poll finding that voters disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress are doing 60 - 32 percent, compared to an overwhelming 71 - 20 percent disapproval for Republicans in Congress.

"The Republican brand is not doing very well these days," said Brown.

The difference between the showing by Mrs. Clinton, Biden and Cuomo shows in her ability and their inability to attract independent voters. For instance, Mrs. Clinton ties Christie 36 - 36 percent among independents while Biden trails Christie 44 - 32 percent among those voters. Cuomo trails Christie 47 - 20 percent among independent voters.

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Clinton 45% 12% 83% 36% 38% 51% 38% 79% 62% Christie 37 74 9 36 41 32 44 9 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 - 5 5 1 4 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 1 5 5 2 3 1 5 DK/NA 12 8 7 18 10 14 11 11 10 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Clinton 42% 36% 33% 33% 33% 44% 25% 40% 41% Christie 46 43 49 49 48 40 56 44 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 3 1 6 2 3 3 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 4 5 2 5 3 6 DK/NA 8 12 12 13 9 13 12 10 12 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Clinton 46% 44% 53% 42% 40% 47% 41% 48% Christie 40 35 30 40 46 29 44 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 1 5 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 6 4 5 4 3 DK/NA 9 13 11 9 9 13 9 12

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Clinton 50% 11% 87% 44% 43% 56% 44% 85% 60% Rubio 34 76 6 32 41 28 41 5 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 4 1 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 4 2 3 - 3 DK/NA 11 10 6 14 8 13 10 10 13 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Clinton 48% 42% 37% 41% 37% 50% 28% 46% 46% Rubio 40 41 48 44 47 35 59 39 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 4 1 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 4 1 3 2 4 DK/NA 8 11 11 12 8 13 9 11 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Clinton 53% 49% 53% 47% 51% 52% 49% 51% Rubio 36 34 29 38 40 26 38 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 3 2 5 2 2 DK/NA 8 12 12 9 6 13 9 10

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Clinton 50% 10% 89% 44% 43% 56% 43% 89% 69% Ryan 38 81 5 38 44 32 46 4 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 4 1 3 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 6 4 11 6 9 7 6 9 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Clinton 49% 40% 35% 41% 36% 49% 26% 46% 45% Ryan 42 47 55 47 52 40 65 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 1 4 2 3 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 DK/NA 4 8 7 10 5 8 6 8 6 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Clinton 53% 49% 54% 49% 50% 51% 48% 53% Ryan 37 38 33 41 41 37 42 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 5 8 8 6 6 7 6 8

Hillary Clinton to travel to Morocco, Tunisia, and the UAE

This post is dedicated to Paul Ryan who, as a Vice Presidential candidate,  should have made it his business to inform himself of the entities with which we are acting on the situation in Syria. He misinformed voters during the debate when he said we were dealing with the Syrian situation solely through the U.N. (to which Republicans are highly allergic). I hope Congressman Ryan reads this and learns.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's Travel to Morocco, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates

Press Statement

Victoria Nuland
Department Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson

Washington, DC

December 5, 2012

---

From December 11-13, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will travel to Marrakech, Morocco to participate in a meeting of the Friends of the Syrian People. This latest meeting provides an opportunity to consult with like-minded governments in the region and around the world on how best to continue support for the Syrian opposition and on efforts to end the bloodshed. While in Morocco, she will also meet with King Mohammed VI, as well as senior Moroccan government officials, to discuss bilateral and regional issues.
She will then travel to Tunis, Tunisia to co-host the 9th Forum for the Future Ministerial with the Government of Tunisia on December 13. This year’s Forum welcomes increased levels of civil society, private sector, and government participation and focuses on the key themes of women’s empowerment, freedom of expression and association, and economic governance and entrepreneurship. Secretary Clinton will also meet with senior Tunisian government officials to discuss progress in the country’s transition to democracy as well as bilateral and regional issues.
Secretary Clinton will conclude her trip in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates and participate in the 3rd ministerial meeting of the Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF) on December 14. The centerpiece of the meeting will be the announcement by Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed of the opening of the first-ever International Center of Excellence on Countering Violent Extremism, which the GCTF set in motion at its September 2011 launch. The Center will provide a venue for training, dialogue, collaboration, and research to counter violent extremism in all of its forms and manifestations by bringing together the experts, expertise, and experience that exist in countries around the globe. The Secretary will also meet with senior Emirati government officials to discuss regional and bilateral issues.

Came the Dawn ... Daylight Emerges Between the Clinton State Department and the White House

As the House Committee Oversight and Government Reform hearing  (there is a link to the C-SPAN video of the proceedings at that post) was getting underway on Wednesday October 10, references were made to a background briefing the evening before.  The transcript of that briefing is now available at the State Department website and provides the most complete account to date of events on the ground in Benghazi on the night of September 11 and the morning of September 12.

All over the internet, MSM and bloggers are referring to this text as well as statements by Secretary Clinton and other State Department officials as evidence that the Department of State never laid blame for the attack in Benghazi on the notorious Youtube defaming Islam which was the message put forth in Vice President Biden's remarks during Thurday's debate with Paul Ryan (a segment during which neither candidate appeared appropriately informed much less "presidential" in a heartbeat-away kind of way)  as well as in U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice's remarks on the Sunday morning talk circuit the weekend following the attack.  At Friday's press availability with Italy's foreign minister,  Secretary Clinton chose her words very carefully in response to a question from CNN's Jill Dougherty.

To this day – to this day, we do not have a complete picture. We do not have all the answers. No one in this Administration has ever claimed otherwise. Every one of us has made clear that we are providing the best information we have at that time. And that information continues to be updated. It also continues to be put into context and more deeply understood through the process we are engaged in. Ambassador Rice had the same information from the intelligence community as every other senior official did.

She did not say that the information Ambassador Rice had was that the attack stemmed from a demonstration of any kind in Benghazi.  In the background briefing we see:

OPERATOR: The next question is from the line of Brad Klapper with AP. Please, go ahead.
QUESTION: Hi, yes. You described several incidents you had with groups of men, armed men. What in all of these events that you’ve described led officials to believe for the first several days that this was prompted by protests against the video?
SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL TWO: That is a question that you would have to ask others. That was not our conclusion. I’m not saying that we had a conclusion, but we outlined what happened. The Ambassador walked guests out around 8:30 or so, there was no one on the street at approximately 9:40, then there was the noise and then we saw on the cameras the – a large number of armed men assaulting the compound.

The hearing itself was purportedly held to determine the nature and extent of  security in Benghazi the night of the attack. What we learned was that there was an interagency detail in Tripoli into August and that although the tour had been extended previously, it was withdrawn and replaced with a State Department detail in Tripoli.  Part of that detail accompanied Ambassador Stevens to Benghazi.

OPERATOR: The next question comes from the line of David Lerman with Bloomberg News. Please go ahead.
QUESTION: Hi. Did the Ambassador – before the attack, did the Ambassador request that security be increased in Benghazi? And if so, did anything ever come of it?
SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL NUMBER TWO: The – when the Ambassador traveled to Benghazi, he traveled with two additional security agents over and above the complement of three who were assigned to post. So there were five agents with him there rather than the two who are normally assigned there – the three who are normally assigned. So they were up two.

There remain voices demanding to know, as Paul Ryan asked during Thursday's debate, why Ambassador Stevens was not given a Marine Guard.  At Friday's press briefing, Victoria Nuland remained remarkably composed and patient as she addressed that issue for the Nth time to a question from the aforementioned Jill Dougherty of CNN.

QUESTION: There is something on the – that came up in the debate last night. It’s more a kind of how do things work question. Congressman Ryan said that Marines should have been sent – Marines exist, guard the Embassy in Paris, and they should have been guarding the Ambassador when he went to Benghazi. Is that correct? I mean, could they have sent Marines? Is that the normal course?
MS. NULAND: Let me just stop everybody here and remind you that we don’t do politics at this podium. We don’t litigate the campaign on one side or the other.
QUESTION: No, I’m not saying it’s politics. I’m saying: How does it work?
MS. NULAND: If you’re asking me a factual question --
QUESTION: Exactly. How does it work? Where-- what do Marines protect? Would they in any case have protected that mission in Benghazi?
MS. NULAND: We’ve talked about the role of Marines from this podium several times. We talked about it in the days following the attack. I would refer you back to what we said at the time, which is that – and I can get you the precise numbers – but we have Marine security guards in about 60, 65 percent of our missions around the world. They are primarily assigned to protect classified information, classified equipment, in those posts that are classified. So – and I would also remind you of what Eric Nordstrom said when he testified on the Hill, which was that in his professional opinion, another foot of wall or another four, five, six – I can’t remember the number that he used – of American security personnel wouldn’t have been able to turn back or handle the assaults at the level of ferocity and lethality that we saw that night.

In the background briefing linked here, the reason why Marine Embassy Security would never have been in Benghazi for any reason was made eminently clear.

OPERATOR: The next question is from the line of Margaret Brennan, CBS News. Please, go ahead.
QUESTION: Hi, thanks for doing this. The timeline here begins around 8:30 p.m., but we had heard in response to some reports where reporters had found paperwork documents on the grounds of the compound that secure materials, that confidential paperwork had actually been secured earlier in the day, therefore there wasn’t any compromised material found at the compound. When did that occur? At 8:30 at night? When were those documents secured or shredded or burned or whatever?
SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL TWO: Because of the – this was a post and not a – and we – this post held no classified documents. They had computer communications with Washington, but the material would arrive on the screen and you would read it on the screen, and then that was it. There was no classified paper, so there was no paper to burn.

Assuredly the debate will continue to rage.  A few  things are clear:

1. There is never-before-seen daylight making its appearance between the Obama White House and the Clinton State Department.  Under-the-bus stories abound.  (I am putting my money on Hillary Clinton.) 

2.  Hillary Clinton intends to get to the bottom of this and will probably make no definitive statements until all investigations are complete  nor should she absent all possible information.  (I hope this extends to appearing before the Oversight Committee as well.) 

3. When faced with overwhelming evidence to the contrary some people will never cease to believe that a Marine guard, which, had one been assigned,  would have remained in Tripoli,  would have made a difference.